Swire Pacific stock: fair value
0019.HKThe fair value of Swire Pacific under our model is $21.56, the price is 33% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $17.96 and expensive above $26.95 (uncertainty low, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $17.93, at 7.8% it would be $27.00.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; the profit includes one-off items, so there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 8.8% (floor: government bond yield 3.8% plus 5 percentage points, since beta 0.8 times the risk premium would give less); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $21.56 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.37B | extrapolated at 7.7% | 0.9189 | $1.26B |
| 2027 | $1.46B | extrapolated at 6.5% | 0.8443 | $1.23B |
| 2028 | $1.54B | extrapolated at 5.7% | 0.7758 | $1.2B |
| 2029 | $1.62B | extrapolated at 5.1% | 0.7129 | $1.16B |
| 2030 | $1.7B | extrapolated at 4.8% | 0.6550 | $1.11B |
| 2031 | $1.77B | extrapolated at 4.5% | 0.6019 | $1.07B |
| 2032 | $1.85B | extrapolated at 4.3% | 0.5530 | $1.02B |
| 2033 | $1.93B | extrapolated at 4.2% | 0.5082 | $979.13M |
| 2034 | $2B | extrapolated at 4.1% | 0.4669 | $936.14M |
| 2035 | $2.08B | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.4291 | $894.47M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $10.85B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (8.8% − 3.8%) | $43.29B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4291) | $18.57B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $29.43B |
| Shares (diluted) | 1.37B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $21.56 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $21.56 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = HK$7.8782)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 16 Jan 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.