China Merchants Port Group stock: fair value
001872.SZThe fair value of China Merchants Port Group under our model is $5.21, the price is 27% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Modestly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $3.72 and expensive above $8.69 (uncertainty high, one part of the fair value is more than twice the other).
The two parts of the fair value come to $8.39 (cash-flow model) and $2.04 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 7.6%. At 8.6% the fair value would be $4.54, at 6.6% it would be $6.21.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (10).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 7.6% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 1.03 times a risk premium of 5.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $8.39 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 7.6%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 7.6%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.01B | extrapolated at 6.9% | 0.9295 | $939.61M |
| 2027 | $1.07B | extrapolated at 5.5% | 0.8640 | $921.54M |
| 2028 | $1.12B | extrapolated at 4.6% | 0.8031 | $895.59M |
| 2029 | $1.16B | extrapolated at 3.9% | 0.7465 | $864.77M |
| 2030 | $1.2B | extrapolated at 3.4% | 0.6939 | $831.22M |
| 2031 | $1.23B | extrapolated at 3.1% | 0.6450 | $796.43M |
| 2032 | $1.27B | extrapolated at 2.9% | 0.5996 | $761.39M |
| 2033 | $1.3B | extrapolated at 2.7% | 0.5573 | $726.75M |
| 2034 | $1.34B | extrapolated at 2.6% | 0.5180 | $692.92M |
| 2035 | $1.37B | extrapolated at 2.5% | 0.4815 | $660.16M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $8.09B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (7.6% − 2.3%) | $26.61B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4815) | $12.81B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $20.9B |
| Shares (diluted) | 2.49B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $8.39 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.20 |
| × 10 (industry P/E) | $2.04 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $5.21 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683, $1 = HK$7.8782)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 4 Apr 2025)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 13 Nov 2026, previously Undervalued
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.