Huagong Tech stock: fair value
000988.SZThe fair value of Huagong Tech under our model is $4.41, the price is 132% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly overvaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $2.94 and expensive above $8.82 (uncertainty very high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $1.97 (cash-flow model) and $6.86 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is. The price is above both.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.8%. At 10.8% the fair value would be $4.29, at 8.8% it would be $4.57.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (25.1).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 9.8% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 1.46 times a risk premium of 5.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $1.97 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 9.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 9.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $102.25M | extrapolated at 22.9% | 0.9107 | $93.12M |
| 2027 | $119.36M | extrapolated at 16.7% | 0.8294 | $99M |
| 2028 | $134.16M | extrapolated at 12.4% | 0.7554 | $101.34M |
| 2029 | $146.74M | extrapolated at 9.4% | 0.6879 | $100.95M |
| 2030 | $157.39M | extrapolated at 7.3% | 0.6265 | $98.61M |
| 2031 | $166.47M | extrapolated at 5.8% | 0.5706 | $94.99M |
| 2032 | $174.35M | extrapolated at 4.7% | 0.5197 | $90.6M |
| 2033 | $181.33M | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.4733 | $85.82M |
| 2034 | $187.68M | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.4310 | $80.89M |
| 2035 | $193.57M | extrapolated at 3.1% | 0.3925 | $75.98M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $921.29M |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (9.8% − 2.3%) | $2.64B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3925) | $1.04B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $1.96B |
| Shares (diluted) | 995.70M |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $1.97 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.27 |
| × 25.1 (industry P/E) | $6.86 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $4.41 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 21 Mar 2025)
- Valuation signal Overvalued since 7 Nov 2026, previously Fairly valued
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.