PCCW stock: fair value
0008.HKThe fair value of PCCW under our model is $1.28, the price is 50% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Valuation signal
Possible value trapIn our model the price counts as cheap below $1.07 and expensive above $1.60 (uncertainty low, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 10.2%. At 11.2% the fair value would be $1.10, at 9.2% it would be $1.52.
Possible value trap: looks cheap, but score below 50, high risk.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; without earnings there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 3.8%. Discounted at 10.2% (government bond yield 3.8% plus beta 1.27 times a risk premium of 5%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $1.28 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 10.2%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 10.2%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $554.22M | extrapolated at 11.0% | 0.9075 | $502.96M |
| 2027 | $603.21M | extrapolated at 8.8% | 0.8236 | $496.78M |
| 2028 | $647.47M | extrapolated at 7.3% | 0.7474 | $483.91M |
| 2029 | $688.17M | extrapolated at 6.3% | 0.6783 | $466.75M |
| 2030 | $726.35M | extrapolated at 5.6% | 0.6155 | $447.08M |
| 2031 | $762.9M | extrapolated at 5.0% | 0.5586 | $426.14M |
| 2032 | $798.55M | extrapolated at 4.7% | 0.5069 | $404.79M |
| 2033 | $833.84M | extrapolated at 4.4% | 0.4600 | $383.59M |
| 2034 | $869.22M | extrapolated at 4.2% | 0.4175 | $362.87M |
| 2035 | $905.02M | extrapolated at 4.1% | 0.3789 | $342.87M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $4.32B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 3.8%) / (10.2% − 3.8%) | $14.77B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3789) | $5.6B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $9.91B |
| Shares (diluted) | 7.74B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $1.28 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $1.28 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Price
- Closing price of 13 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = HK$7.8782)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 22 May 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.