Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong stock: fair value
000301.SZThe fair value of Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong under our model is $1.35, the price is 11% above.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Fairly valuedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $0.96 and expensive above $2.24 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
The two parts of the fair value come to $0.67 (cash-flow model) and $2.03 (industry comparison), and the gap between them shows how uncertain the estimate is.
Calculated with a cost of equity of 8.8%. At 9.8% the fair value would be $1.30, at 7.8% it would be $1.41.
Where the number comes from
Half from the cash-flow model, half from earnings times the industry P/E (19.2).
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 8.8% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 1.26 times a risk premium of 5.2%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $0.67 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 8.8%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 8.8%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $198.86M | extrapolated at 22.5% | 0.9191 | $182.77M |
| 2027 | $231.51M | extrapolated at 16.4% | 0.8447 | $195.55M |
| 2028 | $259.73M | extrapolated at 12.2% | 0.7763 | $201.63M |
| 2029 | $283.68M | extrapolated at 9.2% | 0.7135 | $202.4M |
| 2030 | $303.96M | extrapolated at 7.1% | 0.6557 | $199.31M |
| 2031 | $321.28M | extrapolated at 5.7% | 0.6027 | $193.62M |
| 2032 | $336.32M | extrapolated at 4.7% | 0.5539 | $186.28M |
| 2033 | $349.67M | extrapolated at 4.0% | 0.5090 | $178M |
| 2034 | $361.81M | extrapolated at 3.5% | 0.4678 | $169.27M |
| 2035 | $373.11M | extrapolated at 3.1% | 0.4300 | $160.43M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $1.87B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (8.8% − 2.3%) | $5.88B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.4300) | $2.53B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $4.4B |
| Shares (diluted) | 6.61B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $0.67 |
| Earnings per share, last twelve months | $0.11 |
| × 19.2 (industry P/E) | $2.03 |
| Fair value (average of both parts) | $1.35 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Weak, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 21 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Fairly valued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.