China International Marine Containers (Group) stock: fair value
000039.SZThe fair value of China International Marine Containers (Group) under our model is $4.74, the price is 72% below.
The fair value is an estimate from our model, not a price target.
Daily figure as of 13 Nov 2026
Valuation signal
Significantly undervaluedIn our model the price counts as cheap below $3.39 and expensive above $7.90 (uncertainty high, based on the price swings of the past year).
Calculated with a cost of equity of 9.6%. At 10.6% the fair value would be $4.18, at 8.6% it would be $5.47.
Where the number comes from
From the cash-flow model alone; the profit includes one-off items, so there is no industry value.
Ten-year cash-flow model from smoothed free cash flow and its past growth until it reaches 2.3%. Discounted at 9.6% (government bond yield 2.3% plus beta 1.42 times a risk premium of 5.1%); no analyst estimates were available.
Calculate with your own assumptionsThe calculation step by step
With these figures the cash flow model arrives at $4.74 per share: free cash flow for the next ten years, each year discounted to today at 9.6%, plus the terminal value for the years after. The table explains the calculation; it is not a recommendation.
Calculation as a table
| Year | Free cash flow | Source | Discount factor | Present value (discounted at 9.6%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.04B | extrapolated at −4.3% | 0.9123 | $1.86B |
| 2027 | $1.99B | extrapolated at −2.3% | 0.8323 | $1.66B |
| 2028 | $1.97B | extrapolated at −0.9% | 0.7593 | $1.5B |
| 2029 | $1.97B | extrapolated at 0.0% | 0.6927 | $1.37B |
| 2030 | $1.99B | extrapolated at 0.7% | 0.6320 | $1.26B |
| 2031 | $2.01B | extrapolated at 1.2% | 0.5766 | $1.16B |
| 2032 | $2.04B | extrapolated at 1.5% | 0.5260 | $1.08B |
| 2033 | $2.08B | extrapolated at 1.8% | 0.4799 | $998.08M |
| 2034 | $2.12B | extrapolated at 1.9% | 0.4378 | $928.12M |
| 2035 | $2.16B | extrapolated at 2.0% | 0.3994 | $864.03M |
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Sum of present values (ten years) | $12.67B |
| Terminal value: cash flow 2035 × (1 + 2.3%) / (9.6% − 2.3%) | $30.31B |
| Present value of terminal value (× 0.3994) | $12.11B |
| Equity value (sum plus present value of terminal value) | $24.78B |
| Shares (diluted) | 5.23B |
| Value per share (equity value divided by shares) | $4.74 |
| Fair value (from the cash flow model alone) | $4.74 |
The model uses free cash flow after interest, which belongs to shareholders, discounted at the cost of equity. Net debt is therefore not deducted again.
Data status and sources
- Score
- Daily value of 13 Nov 2026, recalculated nightly
- Price
- Closing price of 12 Nov 2026
- Latest annual report
- Fiscal year 2025, period end 31 Dec 2025
- Currency
- Amounts in US dollars, converted at the ECB reference rate of 12 Nov 2026 ($1 = CN¥6.6683)
- Source
- Financial statements, ratios and prices from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP), based on the company's reports. MEQIRI calculates the score and fair value from them.
Mandatory disclosures for this rating
- ; time horizon around 12 months
- Rated Neutral, published since 7 Nov 2026 (in the score history since 31 Oct 2026)
- Valuation signal Undervalued since 7 Nov 2026
- End-of-day prices, metrics cached for up to 24 hours
- Score and fair value are estimates from a disclosed model. They are not facts and not a price target.
- Produced by SSM Ventures UG (haftungsbeschränkt), responsible person Sven Brostmeyer, Managing Director, automatically according to the disclosed model.
- Not investment advice. Losses up to and including a total loss are possible. Personal circumstances are not considered.